The Global Surge of ICT: Assessing Growth and Diffusion

Information and Communication Technology – commonly called ICT – has reshaped how the world connects, communicates, and conducts business. From the landline telephone to 5G-enabled smartphones, the growth trajectory of ICT has been nothing short of extraordinary. But this growth has not been uniform. While some regions race ahead with cutting-edge connectivity, billions of people remain on the margins. Understanding how ICT has grown and diffused globally is essential to grasping one of the most defining stories of our time: the digital divide.

What does ICT growth actually look like? 🔗

ICT encompasses a broad spectrum of technologies – telephones (both fixed and mobile), the internet, broadband networks, computing devices, and digital media platforms. The global ICT market was valued at roughly USD 6.31 trillion in 2026 and is projected to climb to USD 8.39 trillion by 2031. This growth is driven by cloud computing, artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, and widespread digitisation across sectors like healthcare, education, finance, and government services.

According to the OECD Digital Economy Outlook 2024, the ICT sector across 27 OECD countries grew at an average rate of 6.3% between 2013 and 2023 – approximately three times the pace of the total economy. In 2023, that growth rate reached 7.6%, with countries like the United Kingdom, Belgium, Germany, Austria, and the Netherlands achieving growth exceeding 10%. North America holds the largest share of global ICT spending, while Asia-Pacific is the fastest-growing region, powered by rapid economic development in countries like China and India.

The rise and fall of fixed-line telephony 🔗

Fixed-line telephone subscriptions tell one of the clearest stories of technological succession. Global fixed telephone subscriptions peaked at around 19 per 100 inhabitants in 2006 and have been declining steadily ever since. By 2023, the number had dropped to roughly 861 million subscriptions worldwide, falling below one billion for the first time in 2016.

This decline is directly tied to the explosive growth of mobile telephony. In developed nations, landlines became redundant as mobile phones offered greater flexibility. In many developing countries, fixed-line infrastructure was never built at scale in the first place – mobile networks effectively leapfrogged the landline era entirely. Countries across sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Southeast Asia went straight from limited or no telephone access to widespread mobile connectivity.

Mobile-cellular subscriptions: the great equaliser? 🔗

Mobile phones have been the most rapidly adopted technology in human history. Global mobile-cellular subscriptions surpassed the world’s population years ago, with penetration reaching 110 subscriptions per 100 inhabitants by 2021. This does not mean every person on the planet has a phone – it reflects that many users hold multiple SIM cards or subscriptions for personal and professional use.

The growth of mobile subscriptions has been particularly dramatic in developing regions. Asia-Pacific and the Americas have driven much of the recent expansion. However, growth patterns are not uniform. In Africa, for instance, mobile subscriptions experienced a dip in 2021, highlighting the fragility of connectivity in some of the world’s poorest regions. Meanwhile, the technology itself keeps evolving – 4G subscriptions are now declining as users migrate to 5G. According to the Ericsson Mobility Report, global 5G subscriptions are forecast to reach 6.4 billion by 2031, making up about two-thirds of all mobile subscriptions.

Internet access: connecting billions, leaving billions behind 🔗

The growth of internet access is one of the most transformative developments of the 21st century. As per the ITU’s Facts and Figures 2025 report, approximately 6 billion people – about three-quarters of the world’s population – are now online, up from 5.8 billion in 2024. Global internet coverage rose from roughly 29% in 2010 to around 68% in 2024.

Yet this progress masks deep inequalities. Around 2.2 billion people remain offline, and this number is concentrated overwhelmingly in low and middle-income countries. According to the same ITU report, 94% of people in high-income countries use the internet, compared to just 23% in low-income countries. A staggering 96% of those offline live in low and middle-income nations. Progress, while real, is also slowing – the pace of new users coming online has decelerated in recent years.

The broadband dimension 🔗

Broadband – both fixed and mobile – has become the backbone of meaningful internet access. Mobile broadband coverage is now nearly universal, but the quality and affordability of that coverage varies enormously. The ITU’s 2025 data shows that 5G networks now cover an estimated 55% of the global population and account for about a third of all mobile broadband subscriptions. However, this coverage is heavily skewed: 84% of people in high-income countries have 5G access, compared to just 4% in low-income countries.

Fixed broadband subscriptions continue to grow, though at modest rates. In least developed countries, fixed broadband remains extremely rare, with penetration often below 2 per 100 inhabitants. The cost barrier is significant – in many landlocked developing countries, a fixed broadband subscription can cost more than twice the global median, and in African LLDCs, it can consume nearly 13% of per capita gross national income. The UN Broadband Commission has set a target of broadband costing no more than 2% of GNI per capita – a threshold many developing nations still fail to meet.

Developed vs. developing countries: the persistent gap 🔗

The disparity in ICT adoption between developed and developing nations is the most visible aspect of the digital divide. While high-income countries enjoy near-universal internet access, advanced mobile networks, and robust digital infrastructure, low-income countries face multiple compounding barriers.

Consider data usage as a proxy for quality of connectivity: a typical user in a high-income country generates nearly eight times more mobile data than someone in a low-income country. This reflects not just differences in network speed and quality but also in the availability of content, services, and devices.

The ITU’s ICT Development Index (IDI) captures these disparities systematically. In the most recent rankings, Iceland, South Korea, and Switzerland topped the list, while Eritrea ranked at the bottom. The IDI measures not only access to ICT infrastructure but also usage patterns and skills – providing a comprehensive view of how countries compare.

Investment patterns reinforce this gap. Digital economy projects from 2020 to 2024 totalled over USD 530 billion globally, but roughly 80% of this was concentrated in just ten developing nations. Sub-Saharan Africa, which arguably needs it most, attracts only about 5% of the estimated USD 14 billion needed annually for ICT infrastructure investment.

The urban-rural divide 🔗

Even within countries, ICT diffusion is deeply uneven. The gap between urban and rural areas is one of the most persistent forms of the digital divide. According to the ITU, 85% of urban dwellers are online compared to just 58% in rural areas. Of the 2.6 billion people who were offline in 2024, roughly 1.8 billion lived in rural settings.

Several factors drive this urban-rural gap. Building telecommunications infrastructure in sparsely populated, geographically remote areas is expensive and offers lower returns for private operators. Rural areas also tend to have lower levels of education, income, and digital literacy – all of which reduce the likelihood of internet adoption even where infrastructure exists. As UN-Habitat notes, factors like youth migration from rural areas, geographical isolation, and limited economic resources all contribute to lower connectivity in these communities.

The divide manifests within cities as well. Low-income urban neighbourhoods often have substantially lower broadband adoption rates. In many cases, these under-connected areas overlap with communities that are already marginalised along racial, ethnic, or economic lines.

Socio-economic dimensions of the digital divide 🔗

The digital divide is not purely about geography or infrastructure. It is fundamentally shaped by socio-economic conditions. Income, education, age, and gender all play significant roles in determining who gets connected and who does not.

The gender gap 🔗

Globally, more men are online than women. In 2024, 70% of men used the internet compared to 65% of women – a gap of approximately 189 million people. While this gap has been narrowing, it persists strongly in low-income countries and is particularly pronounced in parts of South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. In landlocked developing countries, the ITU estimates that 43% of men use the internet compared to just 36% of women.

Age and digital skills 🔗

Young people are more likely to be connected. The ITU’s 2025 report found that 82% of people aged 15-24 use the internet, compared to 72% of the rest of the population. However, being online is not the same as being digitally skilled. The World Economic Forum has warned that nearly 40% of today’s job skills could become obsolete, with 60% of workers needing reskilling by 2030. Digital literacy – the ability to navigate, evaluate, and create using digital technologies – is becoming as essential as traditional literacy.

Income and affordability 🔗

Affordability remains the single biggest barrier to ICT access in the developing world. In least developed countries, the cost of a mobile broadband subscription was equivalent to about 5% of per capita GNI in 2024, while a fixed broadband subscription cost roughly one-sixth of per capita GNI. For people at the lower end of the income distribution within these countries, the actual burden is significantly higher. The cost of digital devices like smartphones adds another layer of expense. In high-income countries, 95% of people over the age of 10 own a mobile phone; in low-income countries, only 56% do.

What drives ICT diffusion – and what holds it back? 🔗

The diffusion of ICT follows patterns that economists and sociologists have studied for decades. Several key factors accelerate or slow down adoption:

Government policy and regulation: Countries with proactive digital policies – including spectrum allocation, competition in the telecom sector, and universal service obligations – tend to see faster ICT growth. India’s digital revolution, for example, was dramatically accelerated by the entry of Reliance Jio in 2016, which offered low-cost mobile data at an unprecedented scale.

Infrastructure investment: The availability of backbone networks, data centres, undersea cables, and last-mile connectivity infrastructure directly determines access. Satellite-based broadband is emerging as a potential solution for remote areas, with subscriptions forecast to grow from about 9 million in 2025 to around 30 million by 2031.

Economic development: Higher GDP per capita correlates strongly with greater ICT penetration. Wealthier nations can invest more in infrastructure and their populations can afford devices and services.

Digital literacy and education: Even where connectivity exists, the lack of relevant digital skills prevents meaningful use. The ITU has highlighted that affordability and digital skills are the two most critical factors for achieving equitable connectivity going forward.

Content and language: Much of the world’s online content is in English or a handful of other major languages. For populations that speak minority languages, the internet can feel irrelevant, reducing incentives to get connected.

Beyond access: the quality divide 🔗

The conversation around ICT diffusion is evolving. It is no longer enough to count how many people are online – what matters is the quality and meaningfulness of that connectivity. The ITU Secretary-General has noted that today’s digital divides are increasingly defined by speed, reliability, affordability, and skills rather than simple access.

A person accessing the internet through a slow 2G connection on a shared device in a rural village has a fundamentally different digital experience than someone with a fibre-optic 5G connection in a major city. This quality gap affects everything from the ability to participate in online education and telemedicine to accessing government services and economic opportunities.

This has led scholars to identify multiple levels of the digital divide. The first-order digital divide refers to basic access – who has a connection and who does not. The second-order divide looks at differences in usage patterns and digital skills among those who are connected. The third-order divide, a more recent concept, examines the unequal outcomes people derive from their internet use – for instance, whether being online translates into better education, employment, or civic participation.

Looking ahead 🔗

The global surge of ICT represents one of the most significant transformations in human history. Mobile phones have reached into some of the most remote corners of the world. The internet has connected billions. Broadband networks are getting faster and more widespread. But the benefits of this transformation remain unevenly distributed – between rich and poor countries, between cities and villages, between men and women, and between those who can afford connectivity and those who cannot.

Closing the digital divide will require coordinated action from governments, international organisations, the private sector, and civil society. It demands not just more infrastructure but also affordable pricing, relevant local content, robust digital skills training, and policy frameworks that prioritise inclusion. Initiatives like the ITU/UNESCO Broadband Commission and UNICEF-ITU’s Giga initiative (aimed at connecting every school to the internet) represent steps in this direction, but much more remains to be done.

What do you think? As ICT continues to evolve with technologies like AI, IoT, and 5G, will the digital divide eventually narrow – or will new technologies create new layers of exclusion? And whose responsibility is it to ensure that the benefits of ICT reach the world’s most marginalised communities?

References

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