The Global Surge of ICT: Growth Patterns and Diffusion Dynamics

Information and Communication Technology – commonly known as ICT – has reshaped nearly every aspect of modern life, from how we communicate and learn to how we work and govern. But ICT hasn’t spread evenly. While some populations are deeply embedded in digital ecosystems, others are still struggling to get basic connectivity. Understanding how ICT has grown and diffused globally is essential for making sense of the ongoing digital transformation – and the persistent inequalities that come with it.

What is ICT, and why does its growth matter? 🔗

ICT encompasses all the technologies used for processing, storing, and transmitting information – from traditional telephone lines and television to mobile networks, the internet, cloud computing, and artificial intelligence. The growth of ICT matters because it directly influences economic development, productivity, and human well-being. Research shows that increases in digital infrastructure adoption correlate with measurable GDP growth. In short, as ICT spreads, so does the potential for economic and social upliftment – but only when access is equitable.

The exponential rise of global connectivity 🔗

The numbers paint a striking picture. According to the ITU’s Facts and Figures 2025 report, approximately 6 billion people – roughly three-quarters of the world’s population – are now connected to the internet. This is a jump from around 5.8 billion in 2024 and 5.5 billion in 2023. Just a decade ago, less than half the global population was online. That pace of growth reflects a remarkable infrastructure expansion, driven by government investment, private enterprise, and international development initiatives.

The global ICT market itself has been on an upward trajectory. The sector was valued at roughly USD 5.7 trillion in 2024 and is expected to keep growing at a compound annual growth rate of over 5%, driven by digitalisation, cloud services, artificial intelligence, and the rollout of next-generation mobile networks.

From fixed-line to mobile: a fundamental shift 🔗

To understand ICT diffusion, it helps to start with fixed-line telephony. For much of the 20th century, the landline telephone was the primary communication tool. Developed nations built extensive copper-wire networks over several decades. But in many developing countries, this infrastructure was never widely built – installation costs were too high and geography was too challenging.

Then came the mobile phone, and it changed everything. Mobile telephony allowed developing nations to skip the fixed-line stage entirely and jump straight into wireless communication – a process known as technological leapfrogging. Research published in Social Indicators Research explains that while the traditional S-shaped diffusion curve proposed by Everett Rogers worked well in developed countries, it often fell short in developing ones – except for mobile phones. Mobile penetration in some developing countries eventually surpassed that of certain developed nations.

This mobile revolution was powered by declining handset costs, prepaid billing models that didn’t require credit histories, and the relatively low cost of building cell towers compared to laying landline cables. Today, about four out of five people aged over 10 globally own a mobile phone, according to ITU data. However, that figure is skewed – 95% in high-income countries versus just 56% in low-income markets.

Internet and broadband: uneven acceleration 🔗

The internet followed a trajectory similar to mobile phones but with more pronounced inequality. In high-income countries, internet penetration stands at about 94% of the population. In low-income nations, that figure is just 23%. This gap isn’t just about who’s online – it’s about the quality of being online.

Mobile broadband: the developing world’s gateway 🔗

In much of the developing world, mobile broadband is the primary – and often only – way people access the internet. Fixed broadband connections, which rely on fibre-optic cables or DSL infrastructure, are rare in rural and low-income regions due to high deployment costs. Mobile broadband coverage, by contrast, is nearly universal. Most people in low- and middle-income countries have access to at least 3G or 4G networks.

But coverage doesn’t mean usage. According to the United Nations, a typical user in a high-income country generates nearly eight times more mobile data per month than a user in a low-income country. That gap reveals differences not only in infrastructure quality but in affordability, digital skills, and the availability of locally relevant content.

5G: the next frontier – and the next divide 🔗

The rollout of 5G networks adds another layer to the story. In 2025, 5G subscriptions reached roughly 3 billion, covering an estimated 55% of the global population. But this coverage is heavily concentrated. In high-income countries, 84% of the population has access to 5G. In low-income countries, that number is a mere 4%. This means that while wealthy nations are racing ahead with ultra-fast connectivity that powers AI applications, smart cities, and the Internet of Things, poorer countries are still relying on older, slower networks.

The developed vs. developing divide 🔗

The contrast between developed and developing regions is the most visible dimension of ICT diffusion. Developed countries – North America, Western Europe, East Asia – benefited from early investment in telecommunication infrastructure and strong regulatory frameworks. They reached near-universal connectivity early and are now focused on upgrading to higher-speed, lower-latency services.

Developing countries, on the other hand, face compounded challenges. According to data from UNCTAD, developing nations received only USD 9 billion in ICT infrastructure investment in 2024, against a required annual investment of USD 62 billion – a gap of USD 53 billion. Even the investment that does flow in is concentrated: roughly 80% of digital economy projects in developing countries between 2020 and 2024 were focused on just ten nations. Sub-Saharan Africa, for instance, attracts only about 5% of the annual ICT investment it actually needs.

This investment gap translates directly into connectivity gaps. While 96% of the world’s offline population lives in low- and middle-income countries, many of these countries are making notable progress. Parts of South and Southeast Asia, for example, have seen rapid mobile internet adoption driven by affordable data plans and smartphone availability.

Urban vs. rural: the geography of digital exclusion 🔗

Within countries, the urban-rural divide is one of the starkest dimensions of the ICT diffusion gap. Globally, about 85% of urban residents are online, compared to just 58% in rural areas. Of the 2.2 billion people who remain offline globally, the vast majority live in rural settings.

The reasons are structural. Telecommunication companies invest where the return on investment is highest – in densely populated urban centres. Extending fibre-optic cables or even mobile towers to remote, sparsely populated areas is expensive and commercially unappealing. In many developing nations, rural areas also suffer from unreliable electricity, which limits the ability to charge devices and operate network equipment.

Governments and international organisations have attempted to address this through Universal Service Funds, public-private partnerships, and satellite-based connectivity. For example, low-Earth orbit satellite services are emerging as a potential solution to reach geographically isolated populations, with ITU’s Partner2Connect coalition securing over USD 40 billion in pledges by 2024 to expand access.

Socio-economic factors shaping ICT access 🔗

ICT access isn’t determined by geography alone. Income, gender, age, and education all play significant roles in shaping who gets connected and how they use technology.

The income barrier 🔗

Affordability remains a persistent barrier to ICT adoption. In low-income countries, an entry-level mobile broadband subscription costs about 9% of average monthly income – 20 times higher than in high-income countries. The UN Broadband Commission has set a target for entry-level broadband to cost no more than 2% of gross national income per capita. Many low-income nations are far from meeting this benchmark. Fixed broadband is even more expensive – in landlocked developing countries in Africa, median fixed broadband costs can reach nearly 13% of GNI per capita.

The gender digital divide 🔗

Globally, 77% of men are online compared to 71% of women. That may seem like a small gap, but it translates to millions of women being excluded from digital opportunities. The gender gap is widest in low-income countries and is driven by a combination of factors: lower income levels among women, cultural restrictions on technology use, fewer digital skills, and less relevant online content. Progress is being made – the gap has narrowed since 2021 – but achieving gender parity in internet access remains a challenge.

Age and digital literacy 🔗

Young people are significantly more likely to be online. Globally, about 82% of people aged 15-24 use the internet, compared to 72% of the rest of the population. This is true across all regions. However, while younger users tend to have basic digital communication skills, more advanced capabilities like online safety awareness, problem-solving, and digital content creation are developing much more slowly, even among younger populations.

Diffusion theory and ICT: how technologies spread 🔗

The way ICT spreads across populations is well explained by Everett Rogers’ diffusion of innovations theory, which describes how new technologies are adopted in stages. First come the innovators and early adopters – typically wealthier, more educated, and urban. Then the early majority and late majority follow as costs fall and awareness grows. Finally, laggards adopt last, often only when the old technology is no longer available.

In developed countries, this model – visualised as an S-shaped adoption curve – has worked reliably. Technologies are introduced, go through initial slow adoption, then accelerate rapidly before plateauing at near-universal use. But as research published in Springer shows, this pattern breaks down in many developing countries, where technologies often get “stuck” well before reaching the majority of the population. The exceptions, like mobile phones, succeed precisely because they leapfrog over missing infrastructure.

The concept of technology leapfrogging is central to understanding ICT diffusion in the Global South. When developing countries adopt mobile money systems, for instance, they skip over the entire traditional banking infrastructure. China’s leap from minimal credit card use directly to mobile payments via platforms like Alipay is a well-documented example of this phenomenon.

Key trends shaping ICT diffusion today 🔗

Several ongoing trends are reshaping how ICT spreads globally:

Declining costs: Both mobile devices and data plans continue to get cheaper, though not fast enough for the poorest populations. Smartphone prices have dropped below USD 50 in many markets, expanding access to mobile internet.

5G and next-generation networks: The deployment of 5G is enabling new applications in smart manufacturing, healthcare, and education – but its benefits are currently concentrated in wealthier nations.

Satellite internet: Low-Earth orbit satellite constellations are beginning to offer broadband connectivity in regions where terrestrial infrastructure is economically unfeasible, offering a new path to bridge rural connectivity gaps.

AI and cloud services: Cloud computing and AI-driven services are becoming central to the ICT economy, with IT services and software segments posting consistent double-digit growth rates. These developments, however, require reliable high-speed connectivity that many regions still lack.

Policy and regulation: Government policies – including Universal Service Obligations, digital literacy campaigns, and public investment in fibre-optic backbones – remain critical determinants of whether ICT growth translates into equitable diffusion.

The road ahead: from connectivity to meaningful access 🔗

Getting people online is only the first step. The concept of meaningful connectivity – promoted by the ITU and other international bodies – goes beyond just having a signal. It means having reliable, high-quality internet access at an affordable price, on an appropriate device, with the digital skills to use it effectively. By this measure, the digital divide is far wider than raw connectivity figures suggest.

Bridging this gap will require sustained investment in infrastructure (especially in rural and low-income regions), continued reduction in the cost of devices and data, significant investment in digital skills training, and policies that ensure competition and affordability in telecom markets. International cooperation, through bodies like the International Telecommunication Union and initiatives like Partner2Connect, will also remain essential.

What do you think? Can technological leapfrogging truly close the gap between developed and developing nations, or does it risk creating a two-tier digital world where some populations are permanently stuck on inferior networks? And how should governments balance the push for cutting-edge technologies like 5G and AI with the more basic goal of universal internet access?

References

1. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099554003092330716/pdf/IDU0d9338f7201a08048bb088650a4f928761e4b.pdf
2. https://www.itu.int/itu-d/reports/statistics/facts-figures-2025/
3. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3560945/
4. https://www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Statistics/pages/facts/default.aspx
5. https://social.desa.un.org/world-summit-2025/blog/progress-and-gaps-key-findings-from-itus-facts-and-figures-2025
6. https://unctad.org/
7. https://www.freethink.com/internet/digital-divide-itu
8. https://www.broadbandcommission.org/
9. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11205-011-9989-0
10. https://www.coface.com/news-economy-and-insights/business-risk-dashboard/sector-risk-files/ict
11. https://www.itu.int/